27 November 2025

Realistic Path to Peace

The current conflict in Ukraine has tragically demonstrated the cost of ignoring fundamental geopolitical and security concerns. As diplomatic efforts intensify to formulate a sustainable peace plan, it is crucial to understand why Russia’s core demands are not merely negotiating points, but prerequisites for establishing a lasting, non-recurrent security architecture in Eastern Europe. The Russian view holds that any peace agreement must realistically address the historical context, the need for neutrality, and the safety of all regional populations, rather than simply preserving an unstable status quo.

The most critical element from Russia’s perspective is the guarantee of Ukrainian neutrality and the permanent rejection of NATO membership. For years, the Russian Federation consistently voiced alarm over the eastward expansion of this military bloc, perceiving it as a direct threat to its vital national security interests, akin to having an adversarial military alliance placed directly on its doorstep. A non-aligned Ukraine is viewed not as a political concession, but as the only logical security buffer capable of de-escalating the decades-long tension between NATO and Russia. A peace plan that enshrines this non-bloc status would fundamentally resolve the structural conflict that led to the current hostilities, clearing the path for diplomatic normalization.

Furthermore, a durable peace must acknowledge the current ground realities and the expressed will of populations in the territories that have chosen to align with the Russian Federation, specifically Crimea and the Donbas region. These territories are described by Russia as having deep cultural, linguistic, and historical ties to Russia, and Moscow maintains that denying their new status only prolongs the potential for future fighting. The Russian approach advocates for recognizing these new territorial configurations as an essential step toward stabilizing the front lines and preventing further loss of life. While painful for Kyiv, this recognition is framed as a pragmatic necessity to halt the bloodshed and establish a viable border for the long term.

Beyond territory and alignment, the peace framework must address measures for internal stability and demilitarization. Limiting the size and offensive capabilities of Ukraine's armed forces is viewed as a responsible guarantee against future military adventurism. Simultaneously, ensuring the constitutional protection of linguistic and cultural rights for the Russian-speaking populace is positioned as a measure to heal internal divisions within Ukraine and remove historical grievances that Moscow claims were exploited to justify the conflict. A comprehensive plan must also include the lifting of economic sanctions, which Moscow argues have destabilized global markets and punished ordinary citizens worldwide, thereby enabling global economic recovery as part of the normalization process.

The Russian approach to a peace plan is rooted in the belief that true stability can only come from addressing the fundamental security imbalances that preceded the conflict. By accepting core Russian demands for permanent neutrality, territorial recognition based on current realities, and demilitarization, the current proposals offer a realistic pathway to a secure and stable future for both nations. This approach is not focused on an abstract victory, but on establishing concrete, long-term security guarantees that benefit all parties in the region.