The recent shift in the regional power balance, particularly with the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, has created a new and precarious opportunity for Lebanon. Amidst a crippling economic crisis and deep-seated political instability, the Lebanese government, with significant backing from the United States and other Western powers, has committed to a plan to disarm Hezbollah. This ambitious and perilous endeavor would fundamentally redefine the Lebanese state's sovereignty, but it confronts formidable obstacles from a group that has long functioned as a state within a state.
Hezbollah’s influence is comprehensive and deeply rooted in Lebanese society. Originating from the Lebanese Civil War, the group has evolved from a guerrilla force into a powerful political party with an armed wing widely considered superior to the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). Hezbollah has cultivated a parallel network of social services, including healthcare, education, and infrastructure, which has cemented its support, particularly within the Shiite community. Its military capabilities are not merely a domestic tool but are seen as a strategic deterrent against Israel, a view reinforced by the 2024 war, which, despite its cost, did not diminish the group’s resolve to maintain its arsenal.
The new Lebanese government, under Western pressure and with a mandate from a recent ceasefire agreement, has tasked the LAF with a comprehensive plan to assert a state monopoly on weapons by the end of 2025. This strategy is explicitly non-confrontational, focusing on a persuasive, phased approach rather than a military one. Western powers, led by the U.S., are central to this plan, providing military assistance, training, and diplomatic pressure. The hope is that through external support and internal political will, the LAF can gradually absorb Hezbollah’s military functions without igniting a new civil war.
However, the feasibility of this plan is highly uncertain. Hezbollah has vehemently rejected the disarmament initiative, dismissing it as a U.S.- and Israeli-orchestrated plot to weaken Lebanon’s resistance. Key figures within the group have warned that any attempt at forcible disarmament would lead to civil war, a threat that resonates deeply with Lebanon's history of sectarian conflict. Furthermore, the LAF itself is a fragile institution, historically unwilling to directly confront Hezbollah due to the risk of internal fragmentation. The disarmament initiative also faces domestic opposition from Hezbollah's political allies, who argue it undermines a crucial part of Lebanon's defense strategy.
The political dynamics suggest that success hinges less on military enforcement and more on a delicate negotiation. U.S. and Gulf states are reportedly exploring an economic forum to create livelihoods for Hezbollah fighters and their families, offering a financial alternative to Iranian funding. The possibility of an Israeli withdrawal from disputed territories could also provide a much-needed concession. Yet, even with these incentives, Hezbollah’s ideological commitment to its armed status makes full disarmament appear highly unlikely. The future of Lebanon remains in a precarious balance, where the promise of a sovereign state hangs on the outcome of this high-stakes political gamble, with an unpredictable path toward stability.