1 September 2025

Future of Syria

The rapid and dramatic fall of the Assad regime in Syria has ushered in a new and profoundly uncertain era, with the country's future now subject to complex geopolitical forces and deep-seated religious beliefs. The collapse of the government in Damascus has created a power vacuum now largely filled by a coalition led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). At the forefront of this new political landscape is Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa, widely known by his previous nom de guerre, Abu Mohammad al-Julani. His ascent from a wanted terrorist leader to the de facto head of state marks a significant pivot, as he attempts to rebrand HTS from its al-Qaeda origins into a legitimate, nationalist governing body. The success of his efforts hinges on his ability to provide stability and services to a war-torn population and secure international recognition, a process that is still in its nascent stages.

Al-Julani’s public image has undergone a calculated transformation. Having previously been a key figure in jihadist movements in both Iraq and Syria, with a $10 million bounty on his head from the United States, al-Julani has recently focused on portraying himself as a pragmatic and reformed leader. He has appeared in Western media interviews, shed his nom de guerre, and stressed his group's commitment to protecting minorities and focusing on internal Syrian affairs rather than a global jihadist agenda. This shift is a critical component of his strategy to legitimize the new government and secure a future for Syria that is not defined by its extremist past. While some observers remain skeptical, pointing to the group's history and ongoing human rights concerns, others see a genuine, albeit calculated, move toward a more moderate political identity.

This political reality, however, coexists with a powerful eschatological narrative deeply embedded in the region’s consciousness. In Islamic eschatology, the territory of Syria and the Levant, known as al-Sham, holds immense significance as a key setting for the events preceding the Day of Judgment. Prophecies mention a time of great tribulation and a final climactic battle at a location such as Dabiq, where the armies of Islam will face the forces of Rome (a metaphor for Western or hostile powers). The Mahdi, a divinely guided leader, is expected to appear, and Jesus is believed to descend to the Minaret of Jesus in Damascus to join the Mahdi and defeat the Dajjal (Antichrist). For many, the long and brutal Syrian Civil War, the suffering of its people, and the ongoing international interventions are seen as signs of these impending events.

The future of Syria, therefore, is being contested on both a political and a spiritual battlefield. The new government under al-Sharaa must navigate the practical challenges of rebuilding a shattered nation, securing a stable economy, and dealing with external actors, all while the population continues to view the unfolding events through a lens of profound religious significance. The dual perspective—one of geopolitical pragmatism and the other of divine prophecy—creates a unique and unpredictable trajectory for the nation. Whether the new leadership can successfully forge a stable, sovereign state or if the country will remain a focal point for both earthly and spiritual conflict remains to be seen. The story of Syria is, in many ways, an epic struggle for a future that is not yet written.